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Index > Poker games and rules > Odds and probabilities

What are my chances of sucking out on my opponent in Hold'em?

Author: Jason Steinhorn, Zbigniew
Last updated: Oct 2003
Copyright © 2004 Jason Steinhorn, Zbigniew
The official and up-to-date version of this answer is here.

The following is an extension of the probability table offered by Sklansky and Malmuth in their book, Hold'em Poker For Advanced Players. It lists the probability (%) and odds (X:1) of making any given hand on the turn, the river, combined turn or river (i.e., catching at least one of the outs on either the turn or river), and combined turn and river (i.e., hitting a runner-runner/backdoor draw), given the number of outs for the hand.

Below that is a chart listing the number of outs given a particular drawing hand, and what hands those outs will give if made.

 Chances of making a hand on the turn, river, turn or river (t|r), 
 turn and river (t&r):
        turn    turn  | river   river  |   t|r     t|r  |   t&r     t&r
Outs     (%)   (X:1)  |   (%)   (X:1)  |   (%)   (X:1)  |   (%)   (X:1)
----------------------|----------------|----------------|--------------
  20    42.6    1.35  |  43.5    1.30  |  67.5    0.48  |  17.6    4.69
  19    40.4    1.47  |  41.3    1.42  |  65.0    0.54  |  15.8    5.32
  18    38.3    1.61  |  39.1    1.56  |  62.4    0.60  |  14.2    6.07
  17    36.2    1.76  |  37.0    1.71  |  59.8    0.67  |  12.6    6.95
  16    34.0    1.94  |  34.8    1.88  |  57.0    0.75  |  11.1    8.01
  15    31.9    2.13  |  32.6    2.07  |  54.1    0.85  |   9.7    9.30
  14    29.8    2.36  |  30.4    2.29  |  51.2    0.95  |   8.4   10.88
  13    27.7    2.62  |  28.3    2.54  |  48.1    1.08  |   7.2   12.86
  12    25.5    2.92  |  26.1    2.83  |  45.0    1.22  |   6.1   15.38
  11    23.4    3.27  |  23.9    3.18  |  41.7    1.40  |   5.1   18.65
  10    21.3    3.70  |  21.7    3.60  |  38.4    1.60  |   4.2   23.02
   9    19.1    4.22  |  19.6    4.11  |  35.0    1.86  |   3.3   29.03
   8    17.0    4.88  |  17.4    4.75  |  31.5    2.18  |   2.6   37.61
   7    14.9    5.71  |  15.2    5.57  |  27.8    2.59  |   1.9   50.48
   6    12.8    6.83  |  13.0    6.67  |  24.1    3.14  |   1.4   71.07
   5    10.6    8.40  |  10.9    8.20  |  20.4    3.91  |   0.9  107.10
   4     8.5   10.75  |   8.7   10.50  |  16.5    5.07  |   0.6  179.17
   3     6.4   14.67  |   6.5   14.33  |  12.5    7.01  |   0.3  359.33
   2     4.3   22.50  |   4.3   22.00  |   8.4   10.88  |   0.1 1080.00
   1     2.1   46.00  |   2.2   45.00  |   4.3   22.50  |   0.0      NA
   Number of Outs Given a Particular Hand to Improve
 Outs   Given                           In attempt to make
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  15    Open Straight Flush Draw        Straight, Flush, Straight Flush
  12    Inside Straight Flush Draw      Straight, Flush, Straight Flush
   9    Flush Draw                      Flush
   8    Open Straight Draw              Straight
   4    Gut Shot Straight               Straight
   4    2 Pair                          Full House
   2    1 Pair                          Three of a kind
   1    Three of a Kind                 Four of a kind

Editors note, Oct 2003: for further reference, see the following.

Mike Caro has published an extensive set of probability tables for draw, stud, holdem, and lowball.

In his essay, Theory of Sucking Out According to Abdul, Abdul Jalib discusses the basic concepts of sucking out, chasing, buyin free cards, and semi-bluffing.